How predictive are NBMES step 2?

NBME Step 2 exams are reasonably predictive, especially when taken close to the actual test date, with about two-thirds of students scoring within 15 points of their last NBME score, but they aren't perfect; many score significantly higher (around 1 in 4 score 20+ points higher), while some score lower, highlighting variability due to stress, timing, and individual factors, so averaging recent scores and using them as learning tools, not absolute predictors, is best.

Which NBMEs for step 2 are most predictive?

Among the most trusted Step 2 resources are the NBME practice tests, with forms 11 and 13 being perceived by students as the most predictive NBME for Step 2 CK.

How accurate are NBMEs for step 2?

Here are some interesting statistics, according to the NBME's data: The likelihood that the final score is equal/higher than the last NBME within one week: Step 1: 68% Step 2 CK: 77%

What score is 75% correct on step 2?

Getting 75% correct on Step 2 CK (Clinical Knowledge) is generally considered a very strong performance, often placing you well above the average (around the 75th percentile or higher), translating to a strong 3-digit score (likely in the mid-250s or higher), making you a competitive applicant for most specialties, though top-tier programs in highly competitive fields might look for even higher scores.
 

Are NBMEs predictive of step 2 score on Reddit?

For some, NBME 15 might be the most accurate predictor, while for others it could be NBME 12. That's why averaging your last two or three NBMEs often gives the best idea of your score, as long as you took them under timed conditions to mimic the real exam.

"Exactly how accurate are the NBMEs in predicting my real USMLE score?"

Which NBME is hardest for step 2?

NBME 9 and 12 are known to be the hardest, maybe not because of true difficulty but , especially for 9, there are some poorly written questions. People tend to score slightly lower on these forms.

What score is 50% on step 2?

A 50% Step 2 score (USMLE) typically means scoring around 250, placing you at the median (average) for matched U.S. MD seniors, which is solid but may require strong application components for highly competitive specialties; it's a passing score, but scores vary by specialty, with some (like Family Med/Psychiatry) having lower averages and others (Surgery/Derm) much higher.
 

How is step 2 curved?

Step 2 CK Scoring

Your raw score is converted into a scaled score, which reflects your performance compared to other test-takers. The score distribution follows a bell curve, meaning most students cluster around the average, while fewer students score at the extremes.

Which NBME shelf is the hardest?

The hardest NBME shelf exams are generally considered to be Internal Medicine (IM) due to its vast scope, followed closely by Surgery, Pediatrics, and OB/GYN, often due to information overload or unique challenges like rare pediatric diseases or intense surgical rotations. However, difficulty is subjective and depends on individual strengths, with some finding Psychiatry or Family Medicine surprisingly tough.
 

Are step 2 toys non-toxic?

Step2 products are manufactured from Polyethylene and/or Polypropylene plastics. Step2 products are third-party tested and are compliant with the CPSIA phthalate and heavy metal requirements per ASTM F-963 Toy Safety Standards as well as EN71 - Part 2 and 3 for UK chemical requirements.

Do shelf scores correlate with step 2?

Results. The mean Step 2 CK score among the respondents (n = 213) was 254 ± 13. There was a strong positive correlation between Step 2 CK score and composite shelf scores (rho = 0.80, p < 0.01).

Do NBMEs underpredict step 2?

Step 2 CK NBMEs May (Substantially) Underpredict Scores

The Step 2 CK NBME Assessments are less predictive than the Step 1 Assessments. The NBME's own data support this. 2/3 of students will score within 13 points of their Step 1 NBME but within 15 points of their Step 2 CK NBME.

What percentile is 270 on Step2?

A USMLE Step 2 CK score of 270 is generally around the 95th to 99th percentile, placing you in the top tier of test-takers, considered exceptional and highly competitive for nearly all residency specialties, including the most demanding fields like Dermatology and Orthopedic Surgery, especially with Step 1 being pass/fail.
 

Which NBMEs are most important?

For Step 1, the most important NBMEs are the newer forms (28, 29, 30, 31), especially NBME 30, considered highly predictive, alongside the UWorld Self-Assessments (UWSAs), with UWSA 2 being strongly correlated with the actual score. For Step 2 CK, the newest NBME forms (9-11) and the CMS Forms (Clinical Mastery Series) are crucial for assessing specific clinical areas and predicting performance. 

What score is 75% on step 2?

Getting 75% correct on Step 2 CK (Clinical Knowledge) is generally considered a very strong performance, often placing you well above the average (around the 75th percentile or higher), translating to a strong 3-digit score (likely in the mid-250s or higher), making you a competitive applicant for most specialties, though top-tier programs in highly competitive fields might look for even higher scores.
 

What's a good step 2 score in 2025?

What Is the Average USMLE Step 2 Score Range?

• 230 and below → Passing but below average; limits competitiveness in more selective specialties.
• 240–250 → Solidly within the average range; competitive for many core specialties.
• 255+ → Above average; strong candidate for competitive programs.

Has anyone ever gotten a 300 on Step 2?

The highest possible score for the USMLE Step 2 CK is 300, but no one has ever achieved a “perfect” score. A score around 280 would be considered a top Step 2 CK score.

Is 74% on UWorld good?

Based on historical data, a student with an average points score of 70% and earned a “High” or “Very High” result on a Self-Assessment Test would have a 99% likelihood of passing the NCLEX-RN.

What is 60% on step 2?

To pass the Step 2 CK exam, you must answer at least 60% of the questions correctly, giving you a minimum score of 214. If you want a good chance of securing your desired residency placement, you should aim for a score of at least 245.

Is a 60% good on UWorld?

A 60% on UWorld is generally considered okay or borderline on a first pass, especially since UWorld is known for being difficult and is a learning tool, not just an assessment; focus on consistently reviewing incorrect answers and improving, as scores often rise significantly on a second pass, with many successful test-takers achieving 70%+ later, while scores in the 50s might be more concerning, but the ultimate gauge of readiness comes from NBME assessments after finishing the question bank.
 

How important is Step 2 for IMGs?

IMGs can and do match with strong Step 2 scores.

A standout Step 2 CK score can be particularly important for international graduates, as it helps demonstrate readiness for U.S. clinical practice.

What is the fail rate for Step 2?

Their failure rate on the Step 2 CS examination was 2.5%. The overall failure rate for students with three or fewer low ratings was 2.35%. However, for those with four or more low ratings the failure rate rose dramatically to 30%.

How to score a 270 on step 2?

To get a 270+ on USMLE Step 2 CK, you need a strong foundation from clerkships, master question banks like UWorld and Amboss through active learning and detailed review, use high-yield resources like Divine Intervention podcasts, take frequent NBME practice exams and CMS forms, focus on clinical reasoning over rote memorization, and develop a consistent, burnout-free study schedule, often around 4-6 weeks of dedicated study after rotations.