What is causing the enrollment cliff?

The number of young Americans is declining. One of the most important contributing factors to the country's dwindling college enrollment is that the number of children born in the U.S. has been shrinking. The decline began roughly 17 years ago.

Why is there a college enrollment cliff?

Students are not being engaged early enough.

As many students consider more affordable options or delay higher education, underserved students with limited college prep resources are abandoning the prospect of attending college at much higher rates.

What causes enrollment decline?

The long-term trend of falling enrollment primarily reflects declining birth rates and net migration from California to other states.

How long will the enrollment cliff last?

The consensus view is that America will hit a peak of around 3.5 million high-school graduates sometime near 2025. After that, the college-going population is expected to shrink across the next five to 10 years by as many as 15 percentage points.

Why are college admission rates going down?

Top students (those with strong academic performance and high standardized test scores) are applying to more schools than typical high school graduates. That means top schools don't have to accept such a high proportion of students to fill their incoming classes.

U.S. undergraduate enrollment continues to drop

Why is Harvard acceptance rate so low?

A greater number of under-qualified candidates have started applying to these prestigious institutions. This means that the plummeting of acceptance rates are more likely due to the increase in number of applicants with more diverse qualifications than a sharp increase in selectivity.

Why is Harvard acceptance rate dropping?

One major reason the Harvard University acceptance rate has fallen to a record low is the overwhelming number of students who apply to Harvard. More students submitted a Harvard application than ever before after the school waived its test requirements for the immediate future.

What is the 2025 enrollment cliff?

So if you graph demographic projections, the precipitous descent resembles a cliff beginning in 2025. Over the succeeding four years, the number of 18-year-olds will decrease by 15%. How does that translate into enrollment figures? During that four-year span, colleges will lose approximately 576,000 students.

Is university enrollment declining?

In the past decade, total college enrollment has dropped by nearly 1.5 million students, or by about 7.4%. The undergraduate college enrollment decline has accelerated since the pandemic began, resulting in a loss of over 900,000 students, or almost 6% of total enrollment, between fall 2019 and fall 2023.

Has college enrollment been declining?

College enrollment among young Americans has been declining gradually over the past decade. In 2022, the total number of 18- to 24-year-olds enrolled in college was down by approximately 1.2 million from its peak in 2011. Most of the decline is due to fewer young men pursuing college.

What is the enrollment cliff?

By now we all know about the demographic cliff: the number of traditional college-aged students will peak in 2025 and then decline dramatically for several years. What is less well-known is that the percentage of 18- to 24-year-olds choosing to attend college reached its peak years ago and continues to decline.

What is the trend in college enrollment?

College student enrollment has generally declined over the past 12 years. About 65% of college students are enrolled full time. In fall 2023, roughly 55% of undergraduate students were women. In 2021, 53% of undergraduate and graduate students were white.

Why are people not enrolling in college?

College tuition inflation has averaged a staggering 12% annually from 2010 to 2022, making it increasingly difficult for today's students to afford higher education. This financial burden is what 55% of students say leads them to make the difficult decision not to re-enroll.

Is class of 2028 competitive?

the Class of 2028 early admissions results continue an ongoing trend in college admissions—higher application volumes (in most cases) and lower acceptance rates.

Why don t colleges accept overqualified students?

The Student Isn't A Good Fit For The School

This is the most likely reason that an overqualified student could get rejected. While students with a high GPA or test score might have the academic ability to attend almost any university, that doesn't mean they will fit in well at every school they apply to.

Why do colleges reject overqualified students?

Overqualified students may be applying to these colleges as safety schools and therefore are unlikely to attend if they are accepted into their dream college or second choice. The theory is that colleges, therefore, will reject these overqualified individuals to protect those yield rates.

Is the demographic cliff real?

What is the demographic cliff? There is a simple answer. It is the reality that the number of traditional-age students in the U.S. is expected to peak in 2025 or 2026 and then decline precipitously.

What is enrollment decline?

Last year's slight decline comes on the heels of 2.6% and 1.8% drops in the first two COVID-era school years. The demographic research unit at the California Department of Finance projected a 0.5% decline for 2022–23, only slightly smaller than the actual 0.7% decline.

Are college enrollment rates increasing or decreasing?

Enrollment numbers grew by about 5% in the 2022-23 school year, according to data provided by the California Community Colleges Chancellor's Office.

When did college enrollment peak?

Enrollment peaked in 2010 at 21.02 million. Since 2010, enrollment has declined 9.8%. 11.51 million or 61% of all students, graduate, and undergraduate, are enrolled full-time. 4.1 million or 20.7% of students graduate annually.

What is the college admission trend in 2024?

Test Score Submission is Declining

According to the Common Application's January 2024 report, just 4% of its member colleges required test scores in the 2023-2024 application season, down from 5% in 2021-2022 and down from 55% in 2019-2020.

What is the college enrollment projection for 2030?

This year's budget deal, signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom last month, included $98.8 million to increase the enrollment of California resident undergraduates. Overall, the proposed growth in the 2030 plan would be 23,055 students by 2030, a figure that includes both undergraduate and graduate students.

Has anyone gotten into Harvard with a low GPA?

Can I Get into Harvard with a Low GPA? While it's certainly possible to get into Harvard with a low GPA, as the numbers bear out, it's improbable. For the Class of 2026, a mere 2.09% of admitted students to Harvard had GPAs below 3.5.

Why are Ivy League acceptance rates so low?

The Ivies have always been hard to get into, but the pandemic has made gaining entry into the schools even tougher. With many U.S. colleges opting to make SAT or ACT scores optional over the past two years, the number of applications has jumped, leading to record low acceptance rates.

Are there any Harvard dropouts?

Bill Gates (dropout)

In his short time at the school, though, he made a key acquaintance: Steve Ballmer, who would join Gates and Paul Allen at the software company in 1980. In 2007, Harvard honored its most famous dropout, giving him an honorary law degree.